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马光远:房地产是不是最大的“灰犀牛”?

2018-10-20 09:13:00来源:海外网
字号:
奇迹私服战士加点比例 “负面清单”则提到要限制各类用地调整为一般性制造业、区域性物流基地和批发市场。

QQ截图20170801091904.jpg

图片来自网络

“灰犀牛”这个词在全国金融工作会议之后在中国爆红。不仅人民日报评论员文章提醒警惕“灰犀牛”,中财办的官员在谈及中国经济时更是直面灰犀牛,指出了中国经济当前面临的五大“灰犀牛”。

在7月29日,功夫城市,没有必要在这个时候火中取栗。在政策的打压下,2016年15个热点城市房地产下半年走入下行通道基本是定局。

但是,我想说的是,中国房地产的泡沫问题,如果有智慧的政策而不是现在非常愚蠢的调控,是可以解决的,问题起码没有严重到美国次贷危机前的程度。

一些城市的房价太高,存在着泡沫,几乎没有争议,但我认为,房地产领域最大的风险却不是在热点城市,而是今年热炒的,没有任何概念,房子供大于求,经济基础一般,人口在净流出的四五线城市。

今年这些城市的房价快速上涨,支撑的理由并不充分,这些城市本来存在很严重的“数量泡沫”,经过今年的上涨,价格上也出现了泡沫。在这些城市房子供大于求的情况下,炒作房子有什么价值?好在管理层似乎已经意识到这样玩下去的风险,在最近的高层会议上,已经不再提三线以下城市的去库存政策,这是对的。

特别要提醒,在中国经济新周期悄然来临之际,每个投资者都应该具有风险意识,不要想当然。君不见,连国家地震局都开始学习全国金融工作会议精神了,你要是不当心,很可能在大周期变动的时候,成为时代转换的炮灰。

(作者马光远,民建中央经济委员会副主任、中央电视台财经频道评论员。文章来源:“光远看经济”微信公众号。)

责编:刘琼、耿佩

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