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新华网 正文
一根长阳改变预期? 公私募现“长短之争”
2018-10-19 08:47:38 来源: 上海证券报
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  反弹总在行情临近绝望时来临。在距离2638低点仅6个点时,A股开始迅猛反攻,上周上证综指4个交易日大涨5.49%,成交量也有所放大。反弹之后市场如何演绎?记者了解到,公私募基金对后市看法现“长短之争”:公募基金“看长做长”,认为目前就是历史大底;私募基金观点则有所分化,部分私募“看短做短”博反弹。

  公募基金“看长做长”

  上周三收盘后,看着K线图上的两根阳线,沪上某公募基金投资总监笑着对记者说:“如果明天再来一根阳线,很多投资者的预期就会改变,会从极端看空转向看多。”

  在他看来,当前市场面临煎熬时刻,投资者风险偏好大幅降低,股指震荡下行,赚钱效应缺失,资金入场意愿不足。从新基金发行情况看,当前募集难度超过以往,“某只公募基金仅募集了两万多元。”

  从机构投资者申赎情况看,今年来经历了两波大赎回,第一次是在1月中下旬,第二次是5月份。迄今为止,机构资金依然没有进场迹象。

  但上述公募基金投资总监认为,站在当前时点看,不必过于担心。“不管是从PE还是PB等指标看,当前都可能是大的底部区间,持有3年赚钱概率超过九成,现在是‘看长做长’的好时机。”

  针对上周的反弹, 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙认为,A股估值已经跌到了历史谷底,反弹并不需要特别大的利好。“仅仅因为跌得多了,就是上涨的最好理由,尤其是前期被错杀的绩优股,在反弹时表现会很突出。”

  南方某中型基金公司总经理表示,长期持有优质公司会带来超额收益,很多具有行业领先优势的上市公司,其估值已创出历史新低,长期看问题不大。“买入具有显著行业竞争优势、估值很低的龙头股,怕什么呢?”

  对于投资策略,这位公募基金公司老总认为,如果两年内有不急用的钱,“白马龙头股和指数基金‘基本上可以随便买’,也可以定投指数基金或靠谱的权益类基金。”

  南方基金认为,在市场磨底、人心思涨阶段,降税减费、服务民生、扩大内需等维稳经济信号,触发了市场反弹,但对通胀和宽信用力度的担忧依然是制约市场反转的因素。嘉实基金认为,随着更多稳增长政策的出台,短期大盘会迎来反弹窗口。

  私募基金“看短做短”

  据记者近期走访了解,当前私募基金的仓位普遍较低,不少私募基金整体仓位降至一成以内,仓位在五成以上的很少,轻仓乃至空仓观望成了很多私募基金的现状。

  “行情总在濒临绝望时反转,2638点迟迟不破,成交量萎缩,在稳增长政策加速释放的背景下,市场大概率要反弹了。我今天不仅加仓,还在上证50和沪深300期指上开了多单。”上周五中午收盘,某私募基金经理向记者透露了他对市场的看法。该私募基金经理表示,长期看市场风险不大,目前也是短期抢反弹的时机,比较适合“看短做短”。

  2014年度公募混合基金冠军、长乐汇资产董事长张小仁认为,当前市场的低迷状态,很大程度上属于“长期问题短期化”。但事实上,市场担忧的长期问题可能并不存在,只是基于当前发展趋势臆想出来的担忧。“很多事情都是在发展中解决的,不能用静态思维去考虑动态走势,而要以发展的眼光去看市场未来。”

  在张小仁看来,从股市发展历史看,市场极端低迷总有各种各样的原因,但在估值如此低迷时买入并持有几年,亏钱的概率很小,没有必要过于担心。

  在前明星基金经理、望正资本董事长王鹏辉看来,当前市场整体估值不高,但由于不确定因素增加,追求绝对收益的机构要严格控制仓位,接下来需要关注9月份的经济数据,尤其是全国居民消费价格指数的表现。

  即使市场迎来反弹,但部分私募基金认为还需“谨慎为上”,在当前窗口期可以“看短做短”,但是接下来还需要关注企业经营层面的变化,以及资金面和情绪面是否实质性好转。

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